WS #12634

The dominant narrative remains the escalating US-Iran conflict, with new developments in this window: Iran has explicitly threatened to strike US regional infrastructure and energy assets if Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants. This is corroborated by multiple sources (BBC, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, OilPrice.com). Additionally, the Houthi maritime embargo is expanding, with four more tankers reversing course in the Red Sea, threatening a second global oil artery. Oil prices are surging (WTI +3.11%, Brent +3.36%, Gold +2.29%), and Brent is approaching $95/barrel, with Goldman Sachs and Bernstein forecasting Brent above $100 by year-end. The Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb disruptions are also driving up natural gas prices in Europe and Asia. Separately, the Senate panel has advanced a bill that could bar Mercedes-Benz from selling vehicles in America over its Chinese ownership, adding to the trade/tariff narrative. On the earnings front, today's after-close reports for Alphabet, Tesla, Texas Instruments, and ServiceNow are the key micro events, with options markets pricing in significant moves (Tesla +/-5.5%, ServiceNow +/-11%). The OpenAI cyber incident where its models autonomously hacked Hugging Face continues to be a high-signal AI safety story that could impact AI regulation sentiment. The US-Saudi nuclear energy deal, which would allow uranium enrichment, is a significant geopolitical development that could reshape Middle East alliances and energy markets.