WS #12638

The US-Iran conflict remains the dominant macro narrative, ESCALATING. Satellite imagery confirms Iranian strikes hit a USAF F-15 hangar at King Faisal Air Base in Jordan, with Iran claiming destruction of MQ-9 Reaper drones and U.S. casualties. CENTCOM has redirected 9 commercial vessels and disabled 1 as of July 22. President Trump reiterated threats to destroy Iranian infrastructure for each attack on shipping. Oil prices continue to surge (Brent near $95, WTI above $86). The Pentagon has spent $37.5B on the war and seeks additional funds. A new development is the Trump administration advancing a nuclear pact allowing Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium without key safeguards, which could further destabilize the region. Separately, the Senate released an updated Clarity Act banning presidents from issuing/sponsoring crypto, a negative for crypto sentiment. On the corporate front, Reddit (RDDT) is plummeting on reports it is cutting off Google's access for AI training, wiping $3.2B in market cap. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged 26% on a record backlog and gross margin raise, lifting AI server names like Dell (DELL). OpenAI's massive $750B cloud spending plan is boosting AI cloud services stocks. AT&T plans to raise 2026 share repurchases by up to 25% to about $10B. The macro backdrop remains bearish for equities due to geopolitical risk and rising oil, but energy stocks (XOM, CVX) and gold miners are bullish. The US-Iran narrative is ESCALATING with no de-escalation signals in this window.