WS #12649

The dominant theme in this window is a sharp escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with Iran striking US military assets in Kuwait and Bahrain, including an Amazon data center, and the US launching new strikes on Iran. This has driven oil prices to surge, with Brent crude surpassing $100 and WTI near $90, though prices have since retreated slightly. The Strait of Hormuz tanker crossings have sunk to the lowest since May as war risk spikes. The ECB held rates steady, acknowledging high uncertainty from the energy shock. On the macro front, US PMI data came in mixed (Composite 53.6 vs 51.9 prior, but below consensus), and new home sales beat estimates (628K vs 609K). In corporate news, American Express reported a strong Q2 with EPS of $4.53, beating forecasts, and raised its full-year guidance, but the stock fell 6% in early trading. Intel's post-earnings gains faded as sell-the-news trading set in, while Oracle hit a new 52-week low. Tesla saw massive put option activity ($2.1B premium) ahead of its earnings, and the stock has been trending down for 9 consecutive days below its 5-day MA. The US-Iran conflict narrative is ESCALATING, with no de-escalation signals. The oil price spike is the primary market-moving factor, with second-order effects on energy, airlines, and consumer sectors.