WS #12694

The dominant theme in this window is the escalating US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources confirming renewed hostilities. The US has carried out 13 consecutive days of strikes against Iran, and Trump stated the US is 'locked and loaded' for escalation while also pursuing diplomacy. Iran's IRGC stopped 4 vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz via the southern route, firing warning shots. This has direct implications for oil prices, which are already elevated above $100/barrel. The conflict is also depleting US missile inventories, as noted by defense experts. Separately, Ukraine struck the Tyumen oil refinery in western Siberia, over 2,000 km from the border, adding to Russian fuel supply disruptions. The Russian central bank cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 0.0-1.0% and expects 6-7% inflation due to fuel price increases from Ukrainian strikes on refineries. In tech, Alphabet fell 7% after reporting higher-than-expected capex, while Intel surged 320% after the US government took a 9.9% equity stake via CHIPS Act funds. Tesla dropped 14.5% after announcing $250 billion in 2026 capex for robotaxis and Optimus. Trump threatened tariffs on Europe over fines on Apple and Google, and on Mexico over lettuce and Canada over wildfire smoke. China slapped export controls on 14 EU entities in retaliation for Russia-related sanctions. The NAVER-Brookfield-NVIDIA $10 billion AI factory expansion in Korea was announced, with $950 billion in semiconductor partnership agreements between Korean and US tech firms.