WS #12706

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict with oil supply risks, but this window shows significant escalation: Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu mark a new front in the Red Sea, threatening a second major shipping route. The US paused airstrikes on Iran for the first night in two weeks, a potential de-escalation signal, though Iran's internal power struggle between hardliners and moderates complicates the outlook. Separately, the US announced 12.5% tariffs on South Korea, Japan, and 58 other economies under Section 301 forced labor provisions, effective immediately, which could impact trade-exposed sectors. Tech earnings continue to weigh on sentiment, with Amazon's post-earnings drop of over 10% dragging Nasdaq futures lower. The bond market is reeling from an oil-driven inflation resurgence, with global yields surging to multi-year highs. Carry-forward from previous window: oil price surge, potential talks, Trump Trade unraveling, Alphabet cash burn, SK Group-Nvidia deal remain unrefuted and are carried forward.