WS #12712

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and oil market disruption, with new signals of both escalation and potential de-escalation. Trump threatens a return to conflict if demands are not met, while also stating the US is 'locked and loaded' but open to talks. Iran's IRGC fired on four ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and Houthis launched missiles at Saudi oil sites, pushing oil prices toward $100. However, a notable counter-signal emerged: for the first time in two weeks, there were no US strikes on Iran overnight, and Iran reported a 'peaceful night'. This suggests a possible pause or de-escalation, though the situation remains highly volatile. On the tech side, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang denied an AI chip bust, calling it 'industrially driven' and not seasonal, which counters recent selloff fears. Alphabet's first-ever quarterly cash burn due to AI spending has heightened investor concerns about Big Tech capex sustainability, pressuring GOOGL, META, AMZN, MSFT. Intel beat earnings but fell 8% on $20B+ CapEx guidance. The overall narrative is MIXED: geopolitical risk remains high but with tentative de-escalation signals, while tech faces headwinds from AI spending concerns but with a bullish counter from Nvidia.