WS #12716

The dominant narrative from this window is a significant escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources reporting new IRGC attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This directly threatens oil transit through the critical chokepoint, pushing crude prices higher and increasing supply disruption risk. The US has also unveiled a new B61-13 nuclear gravity bomb, further escalating tensions. Countering this, there are signals of potential diplomatic de-escalation, with Polymarket contracts showing active trading on ceasefire and diplomatic meeting outcomes, though no concrete deal has emerged. Separately, a major tech sector development emerged: Nvidia announced a $500B+ partnership with SK Group for AI infrastructure in South Korea, and Samsung secured a $200B chip deal with Broadcom. These deals provide a bullish counter-narrative to the recent AI stock selloff. Tesla's market cap saw a record single-day drop of $214.5B following weak earnings, a bearish signal for the EV sector. On the macro front, new US tariffs on 60 trading partners took effect, facing immediate legal challenges from small businesses, adding to economic uncertainty. The AI stock selloff narrative is noted as STABLE, with the Nvidia/Samsung deals providing a partial offset but not reversing the broader trend. The US-Iran conflict narrative is ESCALATING due to the new shipping attacks and nuclear bomb announcement.