WS #12721

The dominant theme in this window is a significant escalation in the Middle East conflict, now spreading to a second front. Houthi militants have fired on Saudi oil installations in Yanbu and Jizan, marking a sharp escalation along Red Sea shipping routes. This comes as the US paused strikes on Iran for the first night in two weeks, but Iran's IRGC continues to fire on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The war is now threatening both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with oil prices already above $100/barrel and US gas prices above $4/gallon. Separately, Kazakhstan's President Tokayev publicly urged Putin to freeze the Ukraine war, a significant diplomatic signal from a key Russian ally. On the corporate front, IBM's acquisition of HRL Laboratories signals a strategic push in quantum computing, while Intel's stock dropped 7.9% despite record revenue due to capex expansion concerns. The macro narrative is dominated by escalating geopolitical risk, with oil prices surging and Fed rate hike odds increasing to 35%.