WS #12731

The dominant narrative in this window is the escalating Houthi-Saudi conflict, with cross-source corroboration from The Guardian, a SeekingAlpha-linked post, and a Bluesky analyst confirming Houthi missile and drone attacks struck Jizan, Saudi Arabia, hitting a Saudi Aramco 400,000 bpd oil refinery. This is a direct supply-side shock for oil markets. Simultaneously, a potential de-escalation signal emerges: Iran reported its first night without US strikes in two weeks, and a Bluesky post claims Trump ordered the US military not to proceed with planned strikes on Iran. This counter-signal could dampen the bullish oil narrative if it gains traction. Separately, Ukraine struck a Siberian oil refinery, and Kazakh leader Tokayev told Putin the war should end, adding pressure on Russian energy infrastructure. The Berlin car attack on a Pride parade is a tragic but non-market event. The chip sector selloff (SOX in bear market) and small business tariff lawsuits are noise relative to the geopolitical energy shock.