WS #12738

The dominant signal in this window is a major escalation in the Red Sea conflict: Houthi rebels claim missile and drone strikes on Saudi Aramco refineries in Jizan and Yanbu, with satellite-confirmed fires at the Jizan complex. This is the first direct attack on Saudi oil infrastructure since 2022 and has pushed crude oil past $100/barrel. The attack is corroborated by multiple sources (BBC, Al Jazeera, AP, GDELT, Bluesky posts) and represents a significant escalation that threatens global oil supply and shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Separately, Iran accuses Ukraine of attacking an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea, adding a new dimension to regional tensions. On the US-Iran front, a NYT report indicates Trump has shelved plans to escalate military action against Iran due to concerns over depleting air defense interceptor stockpiles, which acts as a counter-signal to the prevailing bearish war escalation narrative. In corporate news, Apple and Micron are clashing before the Trump administration over Apple's request to use Chinese memory chips (CXMT, YMTC) in non-US products, with Micron warning it could destroy the domestic industry. This could impact Apple's supply chain and pricing. The Houthi attack on Saudi oil infrastructure is the most market-moving development, with direct implications for energy stocks, airlines, and broader indices.