WS #12744

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the Iran conflict on multiple fronts, with oil prices briefly touching $100/barrel before pulling back. Multiple sources (GDELT, Bluesky, Al Jazeera) corroborate that Houthi strikes hit Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, threatening oil supply. Simultaneously, Iran-Oman talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz show progress, acting as a counter-signal that could ease supply fears. The US has paused strikes on Iran due to concerns over dwindling Patriot interceptor stockpiles, per NYT and multiple outlets, suggesting a potential de-escalation. However, the Houthi attack counters that narrative. Additionally, the Pentagon's Iran war casualty count is disputed, with Senate Democrats demanding answers. Lockheed Martin and RTX raised 2026 forecasts on weapons demand, with shares up 10.6% and 7.7% respectively. The Fed's Warsh warned inflation remains too high, with oil near $100 adding pressure. The narrative arc is ESCALATING on the oil supply disruption front, while the US-Iran direct conflict shows signs of DE-ESCALATING (pause in strikes, diplomatic talks).