WS #12751

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmation that the US has shelved a major strike on Iran due to Patriot interceptor shortages, as reported by the NYT and corroborated by multiple sources. This counters the previous escalation narrative and is a de-escalatory signal for oil prices. However, Iran's Revolutionary Guards have stopped six ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukraine struck Iranian vessels in the Caspian Sea, adding complexity. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at 3.50-3.75% at its upcoming meeting, with oil prices and Middle East tensions as key inflation risks. The US imposed new 10-12.5% tariffs on 60 trading partners under Section 301, which could weigh on trade-sensitive sectors. Tesla's Q2 earnings missed estimates due to higher R&D spending, a negative signal for TSLA. CXMT's massive IPO in China highlights the memory chip boom, but is not directly US-traded. The narrative is DE-ESCALATING on the US-Iran front due to the missile shortage, but the broader Middle East conflict remains volatile with Hormuz disruptions and Caspian Sea strikes.