WS #12759

The dominant theme in this window is a significant de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources reporting a mutual pause in military strikes and active diplomatic negotiations. This counters the prevailing bearish thesis driven by the Strait of Hormuz blockade and oil supply fears. The US has paused attacks on Iran for a second day, and Iran has reciprocated, with Omani-mediated talks progressing on a ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz transit management. This development could lead to a sharp reversal in oil prices and a relief rally in equities, particularly in sectors sensitive to geopolitical risk. Separately, Shein's IPO filing revealed a $99M Q1 loss due to US tariff changes, a negative signal for the fast-fashion sector. The AI trade narrative remains stable, with UBS noting strong computing demand despite cheaper models, and a divergence between AAPL (rewarded for CapEx discipline) and ORCL (punished for overspending).