WS #12778

The dominant narrative is a de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with the US pausing strikes for a second night after CENTCOM advised Trump the campaign has reached its limit of effectiveness and munitions are dwindling. Iran has also paused retaliatory attacks. Diplomatic channels remain open, with Iran-Oman talks on Hormuz making progress. However, a tanker explosion in the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a mine (per Iranian media) underscores continued risk to oil transit. Oil prices have eased, but the situation remains fragile. Separately, the upcoming week is pivotal for tech: Fed decision, GDP, PCE data, and earnings from MSFT, META, AAPL, AMZN. Apple has overtaken Nvidia as the world's most valuable company, signaling a shift from pure AI hype to stable earnings. The macro narrative is STABLE with a slight de-escalation tilt on geopolitics, but the tanker incident is a counter-signal that keeps oil risk alive.