WS #12795

The dominant signal in this window is the US pause on strikes against Iran over the weekend, which has triggered a sharp decline in oil prices (WTI -5.31%, Brent -5.24%) and a rise in US equity futures. Multiple sources (Seeking Alpha, BBC, Guardian, GDELT, oilprice.com, and various Bluesky posts) corroborate the same narrative: the US refrained from striking Iran for a second consecutive night, easing supply disruption fears. This represents a DE-ESCALATION of the US-Iran conflict narrative that had been driving oil prices above $100. The counter-signal is that the pause is temporary—the US remains 'locked and loaded' and Trump posted AI-generated images referencing a 'Strike on Kharg' (Iran's key oil export hub), suggesting the de-escalation may be fragile. Separately, the Pentagon updated its casualty database, adding 140+ wounded and creating a new 'Overseas Operations' category, which may fuel domestic political debate but has limited immediate market impact. Other notable items: Nvidia to acquire $1 billion of Naver shares (positive for NVDA), Brown-Forman rejects Sazerac bid (neutral for BF.B), and CXMT's STAR debut with massive retail demand (positive for MU via DRAM supply dynamics). Global bond yields hit highest since 2008, but this is a continuation of existing trend. Wildfires in Europe and UK heatwave are noise for US markets.