WS #12813

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran de-escalation, which is now firmly in a DE-ESCALATING phase. Multiple sources (CNBC, Seeking Alpha, OilPrice.com, Bloomberg, AFP) confirm a halt in hostilities for three nights, with the US prioritizing diplomacy. This has triggered a sharp 5-6% plunge in oil prices (Brent to $90.72, WTI to $84.25), boosting equity futures (Dow +0.8%, S&P +0.8%) and European indices. The German IFO business expectations beat estimates (86.7 vs 84.8), adding to positive sentiment. However, the de-escalation is fragile: Saudi strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and Ukrainian strikes on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea highlight risks of escalation by other actors. The EU's 21st sanctions package targeting Russia's oil trade and shadow fleet adds a bearish undercurrent for energy markets. In corporate news, AstraZeneca reported a Q2 beat driven by cancer drug sales, and argenx struck a $2.2B deal for Forte Biosciences. SoftBank is near a deal for Blackstone's Japan payments firm. CXMT's staggering IPO (500% surge) is now a stale headline from the previous window and is not repeated. The narrative arc for US-Iran is DE-ESCALATING, for oil is BEARISH, and for equities is BULLISH but cautious.