WS #12817

The dominant narrative this window is the US-Iran de-escalation, which is now confirmed by multiple sources (CNBC, Reuters, GDELT) stating a pause in strikes to create space for diplomacy. This has driven oil prices down sharply (Brent -7.3% to $84.97, WTI -7.6% to $82.56) and boosted global equities, with US futures rising 0.8-1.36% and Asian markets rallying. However, new signals emerge: Iran's IRGC continues to stop vessels in the Strait of Hormuz (6 vessels turned back), and Iran says Hormuz remains closed and US not involved in talks with Oman, indicating the de-escalation is fragile. Additionally, China's Commerce Ministry warned it will take all necessary measures against US planned probe into Chinese AI firms, escalating US-China tech tensions. Nvidia and over 30 firms formed the Open Secure AI Alliance for AI safety, while Jim Chanos criticized Nvidia's $250B OpenAI data center deal as effectively financing its own chip sales. Piper Sandler upgraded Rivian and Mobileye. The narrative arc is mixed: US-Iran de-escalation is STABLE but fragile, US-China tech tensions are ESCALATING, and AI sector signals are mixed (bullish for Nvidia partnerships, bearish for Big Tech spending sentiment).