WS #12845

The dominant narrative in this window is the US-Iran ceasefire/de-escalation, which is driving a sharp oil price crash (WTI down ~7.5% to ~$82.66) and a broad equity relief rally. However, a chip rout is weighing on the Nasdaq 100, with Apple officially overtaking Nvidia as the world's most valuable company ($4.92T vs $4.75T). The ceasefire narrative is being tested by continued drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities from Iran-backed groups, suggesting the de-escalation is fragile. Trump threatens military action if negotiations fail, adding uncertainty. Oil crash counters the previous bearish energy/inflation thesis, benefiting airlines and consumer stocks while hurting energy producers. Nvidia is investing $5B in Ilya Sutskever's AI startup, and Nvidia, Microsoft, and IBM launched an Open Secure AI Alliance for cybersecurity. ServiceNow is up 8% on positive earnings. Bitcoin ETF outflows of $465M over two days signal fragile crypto sentiment, but BTC has recovered to $65k on the ceasefire news. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at Wednesday's meeting. JPMorgan's in-house indicator is flashing a buy signal for the S&P 500. European wildfires are a non-market story. The narrative arc is STABLE for the ceasefire theme, with the oil crash and equity relief rally continuing, but the drone attacks and Trump's threats introduce downside risk.