WS #12847

The dominant narrative remains the fragile US-Iran ceasefire and its second-order effects on energy markets, with no material escalation or de-escalation in this window. The key new development is Apple officially overtaking Nvidia as the world's most valuable company, a MAG7 carve-out that contradicts the prevailing tech selloff narrative. Additionally, China has begun mass-producing domestic deep UV chip fabrication tools, which is driving a broad semiconductor selloff (AMD, NVDA, INTC, etc.) and eroding chipmaker margins. Mediators report progress in Iran conflict talks, but drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure continue, keeping energy markets on edge. Italy approved a temporary diesel tax cut to cushion energy price impacts. The Fed rate decision remains the dominant macro event for the week, with Polymarket odds showing no change expected. Other notable items: Microsoft unveiled its first cybersecurity AI model, Moonshot AI released Kimi K3 open weights, and Ares Management is in talks to acquire Leonard Green & Partners.