WS #12856

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating geopolitical risk in the Middle East, with multiple corroborating reports of drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities and a Turkish cargo ship sinking near Odessa. Saudi Arabia intercepted drones targeting oil facilities, and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq denied responsibility, attributing the attack to Yemeni forces. This is a direct threat to oil infrastructure, and Brent crude is already down 9.24% on the day, likely reflecting a combination of factors including potential demand destruction and ceasefire hopes. The US-Iran conflict continues to simmer, with reports of cracks in US military command and Trump threatening to use Iran's frozen assets for damages. Separately, Apple has reclaimed the title of world's most valuable company, surpassing Nvidia, with a market cap above $4.9 trillion, supported by a $168M dark pool buy order. This is a significant sentiment boost for AAPL and a potential rotation signal away from AI/semiconductors. The Fed meeting this week is the key macro event, with Polymarket bets heavily favoring no rate change. Bitcoin is holding around $65,000, resilient despite the AI selloff, but the Fed decision could determine its next move. Wildfires in Europe and the US are also notable but are unlikely to have a direct market impact beyond insurance and energy sectors.