WS #12873

The dominant signal in this window is the continued de-escalation of US-Iran hostilities, with multiple sources (Bloomberg, Financial Post, GDELT) confirming Trump's confirmation of talks and a pause in strikes. This has driven a massive oil selloff: Brent crude fell ~8.7% to ~$88.36/bbl, WTI dropped ~7.5% to ~$82.61/bbl. The narrative arc is DE-ESCALATING from the prior crisis frame. However, countervailing supply-side risks persist: Houthi drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities (Abqaiq refinery) and Ukraine's renewed long-range strikes on Russian oil infrastructure add noise, but the diplomatic thaw is the overriding signal. The Fed decision on Wednesday (July 29) is in focus, with Trump publicly urging rate cuts amid a split Fed. Citadel Securities expects a surprise rate hike, while Polymarket markets show bets on no change. Additionally, Nvidia is reportedly negotiating a ~$250B financial guarantee for an OpenAI data center project, reinforcing the AI infrastructure theme but secondary to the macro oil move. Apple regained the title of most valuable company, surpassing Nvidia, as chip stocks sold off on AI spending concerns. Johnson & Johnson announced a $5.5B talc settlement, a positive for JNJ.