WS #12884

The dominant narrative is a DE-ESCALATION in US-Iran tensions, with Brent crude futures falling $2.6 to $86.30/bbl as both sides pause attacks and pursue diplomatic talks. The US issued a sweeping 60-day Iran oil sanctions waiver (General License X), allowing dollar-denominated trade and potentially unlocking ~67 million barrels of stranded Iranian crude, delivering a $8-9 billion windfall to Tehran. This counters the previous oil supply crisis thesis. Separately, South Korea's KOSPI index plunged 10.7%, signaling potential contagion from the AI selloff or geopolitical jitters. In corporate news, Barclays (BCS) beat Q2 estimates with EPS $0.90 vs $0.89 consensus, while Unilever upgraded FY2026 outlook. ASML raised 2026 guidance for the second time this year on strong AI chip demand, but shares fell 0.49% after initial gains. The Bank of Indonesia governor resigned for personal reasons amid prolonged market turmoil. Wildfires in France and Spain are causing humanitarian and environmental damage but have limited direct market impact. The EU agreed a 21st sanctions package against Russia, freezing the crude oil price cap at $44/bbl. The AI capex selloff narrative from the previous window carries forward as unrefuted, but the Iran de-escalation is the dominant new signal.