WS #12889

The dominant signal in this window is the intensification of the AI/semiconductor selloff, now a full-blown rout in Asian markets. South Korea's Kospi plunged nearly 11%, triggering circuit breakers, as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell over 13% and 14% respectively. Japan's Nikkei dropped over 3%, with Kioxia, Advantest, and Tokyo Electron down 10-15%. The catalyst is a report that China's Shanghai Yuliangsheng has begun mass production of domestic DUV lithography tools, threatening ASML's monopoly and the competitive position of global chip leaders. This compounds existing fears about AI spending sustainability and 'circular funding' in the industry. Separately, Amazon is overhauling its AI strategy, winding down most flagship Nova models per Business Insider, a bearish signal for the AI ecosystem. On the macro front, the US-Iran de-escalation narrative is STABLE but with a new twist: oil prices continue to fall (Brent below $84, WTI near $81) as diplomatic talks progress, with Oman proposing a joint management mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran's deputy parliament speaker made hawkish statements, saying Iran will 'never reach an understanding with US' and calling Hormuz 'the pinnacle of our power,' which could reintroduce risk. The Japan earthquake narrative is DE-ESCALATING as the tsunami advisory has been lifted and TSMC confirmed evacuation was precautionary. The tech selloff narrative is ESCALATING with new negative catalysts from China's chip breakthrough and Amazon's AI pivot. The US-Iran de-escalation narrative is STABLE but fragile.