WS #12913

The dominant narrative in this window is a sharp rotation out of tech/AI into defensive sectors, with insurance stocks rallying to a record as AI concerns drive safe-haven flows. Oil prices continue to collapse (Brent crude down ~8% to $81.34) on hopes of US-Iran conflict de-escalation, though Iran's rejection of Trump's frozen funds plan and threat to ban ships from Hormuz provides a counter-signal that could reverse the decline. EssilorLuxottica reported H1 revenue of €14.81B (+9.7% YoY) with AI glasses revenue nearly doubling, but Q2 revenue of €7.69B missed estimates of €7.83B, causing the stock to fall. Apple reached a $5 trillion market cap, acting as a safe haven amid tech weakness. The Fed decision looms Wednesday, with Polymarket bets heavily favoring no change. The macro narrative is ESCALATING for tech/semiconductor bearishness and DE-ESCALATING for oil prices, with a counter-signal from Iran's Hormuz threat that could reverse oil's decline.