WS #12934

Oil prices are collapsing as a fragile US-Iran pause holds, with Brent crude down over 7% to below $90 and WTI falling 6.5%. However, the situation remains highly volatile: Iran denies agreeing to a truce, Saudi Arabia intercepted drones targeting oil facilities, and Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery remains shut after a Houthi attack. The conflicting signals create a high-risk, high-uncertainty environment for energy markets. Separately, the AI capex debate is intensifying: Google raised its spending estimate to $205B, and OpenAI is in talks with Nvidia for a $250B backstop for a data center, while Michael Burry increased bearish AI positions. Celestica reported strong earnings and raised guidance, providing a bullish counterpoint. The Fed decision looms Wednesday with 77-79% odds of no change, but Citadel Securities' rate hike call adds angst. Trump administration plans to end Medicare drug plan subsidy, impacting healthcare stocks. Qorvo and Skyworks reported strong earnings and announced leadership for their combination.