WS #12963

The dominant narrative is a sharp escalation in US-Iran hostilities, with Iran launching a ballistic missile attack on US forces in Jordan, which was intercepted by CENTCOM. This shattered a brief period of calm and triggered a 5% jump in crude oil prices, reviving supply disruption fears. Simultaneously, the Asian semiconductor selloff intensified, with SK Hynix missing profit estimates despite record revenue, leading to a 10%+ drop in its stock and circuit breaker activation in South Korea. The tech rout is spreading, with SoftBank down 7% and US chip stocks like AMD and Micron falling 8%+. However, a notable counter-trend is Apple's market cap briefly touching $5 trillion, as investors rotate from AI capex-heavy names to Apple's capital discipline, ahead of its earnings. The Fed decision looms, with markets split on a rate hike. OPEC+ is expected to pause output hikes at its August 2 meeting, providing a floor for oil prices. The Senate advanced Russia sanctions, adding geopolitical pressure. Overall, the market is in a risk-off rotation: energy bullish, tech/semiconductors bearish, with Apple as a defensive standout. Narrative arc: ESCALATING — US-Iran conflict reignites after a five-day pause, with Iran launching missiles at US forces in Jordan and US/Saudi strikes on Iraqi militias. Oil prices spike 4%+ on the news. The Asian tech selloff deepens, with South Korea's KOSPI down 7% and circuit breakers triggered. SK Hynix earnings miss fuels AI spending sustainability fears. Apple's $5 trillion market cap milestone stands as a counter-trend, signaling rotation into defensive tech. The Fed's FOMC decision is the next major catalyst, with markets pricing in a 30.5% chance of a hike.