WS #12982

Markets are under severe pressure from escalating US-Iran tensions, with oil prices surging 7% as Trump threatens Iran hours before the FOMC decision. Brent crude jumped to $89.70, WTI to $84.48, driven by reports of Iranian-backed militia drone strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure and a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian refinery 1,500 km from Ukraine. The US Senate advanced a sweeping Russia sanctions bill in an 86-12 vote, adding geopolitical risk. Apple became a $5 trillion company, a bullish signal for tech. However, options flow shows heavy put activity in QQQ ($925M premium, put-aggressive) and ORCL ($94M premium, put-aggressive), indicating bearish positioning. Royal Caribbean lowered profit forecast due to the US-Iran war, impacting travel stocks. UPS faces headwinds after cutting ties with Amazon. The Fauci hearing is political noise with limited market impact. The narrative arc for US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING, while the FOMC decision is STABLE (no change expected).