WS #12993

The dominant narrative this window is a sharp escalation in US-Iran hostilities, with President Trump vowing to "beat the f****** s*** out of them" after Iran resumed missile attacks on US bases in Jordan. This has sent oil prices surging 7-8% (Brent above $90, WTI above $85) and triggered a broad risk-off move: Dow Jones down 800+ points, Nasdaq 100 entering correction territory, and semiconductor stocks getting clobbered (AMD -8.15%, MU -8.85%, SNDK -14.25%). The selloff in tech is compounded by the AI capex anxiety ahead of Microsoft and Meta earnings after the bell, with Google's report having already sparked a selloff. Meanwhile, L'Oréal reported strong H1 results (sales +6.5% adjusted LFL, record operating margin 21.3%), and Airbus beat EPS estimates but missed on revenue. The Fed decision looms later today, with Polymarket bets heavily favoring no change. A potential counter-signal to the oil spike: BP sold a 15% stake in Iraq's Kirkuk fields to Turkish Petroleum, which could slightly ease supply concerns, but the Houthi strike on a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea and Ukraine's strike on a Russian refinery keep upward pressure on crude. The macro narrative is ESCALATING on the geopolitical front, with the oil surge and tech selloff reinforcing each other.