WS #13003
No material new developments in the last 30 minutes. The previous synthesis remains current: Fed held rates steady with three hawkish dissents, geopolitical tensions persist with US-Iran strikes and oil supply disruptions, and South Korea's market plunge. No counter-signals or de-escalation observed.
Topics
Key developments
- Fed holds rates steady but three members dissent in favor of hike, first time since 2016
- US-Saudi airstrikes kill 20 Iranian advisers in Iraq; Iran retaliates with missile attack on US base in Jordan
- Oil prices spike as Ukraine drone strikes hit Russian oil refinery and Black Sea terminal; US refiners at near-record capacity
- South Korea KOSPI plunges 6%, down ~40% from peak, as AI chip boom fades; Finance Minister apologizes for leveraged ETFs
- Japan earthquake magnitude 7.1 kills at least 13, causes widespread destruction
- Fed swaps now price 59.9% probability of September rate hike, down from higher levels
- US issues 60-day Iran oil sanctions waivers, unlocking billions for Tehran
- US high-grade corporate bond market sees highest dysfunction in nearly three years