WS #13012

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of US-Iran tensions. President Trump has stated the US will 'hit them very hard' in response to a drone strike on a US-owned vessel at Egypt's Damietta Port and a rocket attack from Iran. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Reuters, pro-wire, Bluesky posts). Oil prices are spiking, with crude futures rising, and energy stocks (XOM, CVX) are trading higher. Airlines are trading lower on fuel cost concerns. Separately, SpaceX is reportedly seeking to acquire urban radio spectrum to compete with wireless carriers, sending AT&T and Verizon down ~4%. The Fed decision (rates held steady, 9-3 vote) is now stale; the market is focused on the geopolitical escalation. The narrative arc is ESCALATING on US-Iran tensions. The Fed's fractured vote and Warsh's commitment to more press conferences are secondary to the immediate geopolitical risk. Additionally, Taiwan has detained a senior Nvidia manager over alleged chip smuggling to China, adding to semiconductor sector headwinds. The 30-year Treasury yield has surged to its highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis, reflecting inflation and geopolitical risk.