WS #13038

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate with fresh US strikes on Iran, including Qeshm Island and cities like Ahvaz and Abadan, after Iran attacked US forces in Jordan. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, BBC, GDELT, Bluesky). Oil prices remain elevated but showed some intraday easing as tankers still pass through Bab el-Mandeb. A Polish airspace incursion by an unidentified object (likely a Russian missile) that crashed near Tarnawa-Kolonia adds a new geopolitical risk vector, with Polish F-16s scrambled and a crater found. Russia also struck military targets across Ukraine and three cargo ships. QatarEnergy has stepped up spot US LNG deliveries to Asia and bought 33 US LNG cargoes to offset Hormuz disruptions, a counter-signal to oil supply fears. On earnings, Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) beat estimates (EPS $1.21 vs $1.11, revenue beat), ING Groep (ING) beat and raised guidance, while ArcelorMittal (MT) missed. Microsoft's massive $130B+ data center lease commitments signal continued AI infrastructure buildout, supporting MSFT and NVDA. The Fed held rates steady, Asian stocks mixed, base metals rose. The dominant narrative is ESCALATING US-Iran conflict, but QatarEnergy's LNG actions and oil tanker traffic provide a partial counter. The Polish airspace incident is a new escalation risk.