WS #13043

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, with fresh reports of Iran attacking US troops and Trump announcing retaliation, alongside a missile strike in Poland that Polish PM Tusk says appears to be Russian. This corroborates the ongoing geopolitical risk narrative and likely sustains upward pressure on oil prices. Separately, Microsoft reported strong Q4 results with Azure revenue up 43%, driving shares up ~8% in pre-market, while Meta's free cash flow collapsed to $784M due to AI spending, creating a stark contrast within MAG7. Adidas missed EPS estimates and shares are down 17%, but China growth was strong per CEO. Shell's profit doubled on refining and trading, launching a $3B buyback. A Russian missile reportedly landed in Poland near Lublin, with Tusk confirming airspace violation and convening emergency meetings, raising NATO Article 5 concerns. The narrative arc is ESCALATING for US-Iran conflict and Russia-NATO tensions, BULLISH for Microsoft and energy, BEARISH for Meta and Adidas.