WS #13060

The dominant signal in this window is a broad tech rally driven by a rotation out of AI infrastructure losers and into AI monetization winners, following the unwinding of Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund. The Nasdaq-100 surged 3%, led by Microsoft and semiconductors, as forced selling in AI infrastructure names (Nebius +30%, Bloom Energy +30%, CoreWeave +22%) is seen as a 'clearing event' that may mark a bottom for the AI trade. This is corroborated by multiple sources: Seeking Alpha reports 'AI CapEx Fear Is Breaking', Cramer calls it a 'clearing event', and the Aschenbrenner unwind is confirmed by Bloomberg and Seeking Alpha. The tech rally is broad, with Microsoft up on strong fundamentals (dark pool alert of $128M, Evercore raising PT to $528, Citizens reiterating $550), while Apple is down 2% on passive account stuffing concerns. Macro data shows stagflation signals: Q2 GDP slowed to 1.5% (below 2.1% expected), core PCE at 3.3% YoY, and personal income rose only 0.2% MoM. However, the market is looking past this, focusing on the AI narrative shift. Geopolitical risks persist: US military strikes on Iranian targets, attack on Egyptian port showing Suez Canal vulnerability, and oil holds gains. The US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING with fresh attacks. The yen strengthened sharply (USD/JPY from 163.70 to 162.75) on suspected BOJ intervention, posing risks to carry trades. Key earnings tonight: Apple and Amazon after the bell.