WS #13072

The dominant signal in this window is the massive divergence between Microsoft and Meta earnings, with MSFT surging ~15% on accelerating Azure growth (43%, fastest since 2022) and reaffirmed capex, while META plunges ~9% on weak free cash flow and soft Q3 guidance. This creates a MAG7 carve-out: MSFT's report counters the prevailing AI capex skepticism narrative, while META's selloff reinforces it. Separately, geopolitical risks escalate: a Russian missile landed in Poland (NATO scrambles jets), Ukrainian drone strikes hit Russian oil refineries (Perm CDU-5 destroyed, ~30% capacity loss), and Russia extended diesel/gasoline export bans into 2027. These energy supply disruptions support oil prices and energy stocks. The US GDP growth slowed to 1.5% in Q2, missing forecasts, while the Fed held rates steady with a hawkish tilt (30Y yield hit 19-year high of ~5.23%). The Aschenbrenner fund liquidation appears complete, with Jim Cramer calling it a 'sure signal to buy' AI stocks. Apple and Amazon report after the bell, with Apple's memory crunch and Amazon's capex in focus. The IPO market saw Jersey Mike's open below its IPO price (-8.7%) and Reformation flat, signaling weak demand for new issues.