WS #13090

The dominant signal in this window is the after-hours earnings reactions for Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN), which are moving in opposite directions. Amazon reported a massive beat: Q2 revenue of $201B (+20% YoY), AWS cloud growth of 37% (fastest in 18 quarters, vs 31% expected), and net income of $63B (including $53B unrealized gain from Anthropic). Amazon guided Q3 revenue 9-11% growth and maintained ~$200B capex. AMZN shares surged ~9% after hours. Apple reported a solid beat: Q3 revenue $109.4B (+16.4% YoY), iPhone sales $54.25B (+22% YoY, record for June quarter), EPS $2.02 (ex-tariff refunds ~$1.91 vs $1.89 est). However, Apple shares fell ~4% after hours on a Services revenue miss ($30.7B vs $31.2B est) and concerns about chip supply constraints and the end of Tim Cook's tenure. The contrasting reactions highlight a market that is rewarding AI-driven cloud growth (AMZN, MSFT) while punishing any hint of weakness in services or margins (AAPL, META). Other notable after-hours movers: Coinbase (COIN) fell ~5% on Q2 loss of $1.36/share vs -$0.17 expected; Reddit (RDDT) fell ~7% on 'choppy' search referrals despite a beat; AXT (AXTI) surged 27% on strong AI infrastructure demand. Geopolitical noise includes drone attacks on ships in Egypt's Damietta port and continued US-Iran strikes, but oil prices are not spiking in this window. The macro narrative is stable: US Q2 GDP slowed to 1.5% (below 2.1% prior) but personal consumption remained strong at 3%+. The Fed held rates steady, and bond yields remain elevated. The prevailing theme is a tech divergence: AI cloud spending is paying off for AMZN and MSFT, but pressuring margins at META and COIN. AAPL's iPhone strength is being overshadowed by services concerns and supply chain headwinds.