WS #13092

The dominant signal in this window is the after-hours earnings releases from Apple and Amazon, which are moving markets in opposite directions. Apple reported a record June quarter with revenue of $109.4B (up 16% YoY) and EPS of $2.02, beating estimates, but guided Q4 revenue below consensus at $111.7B-$113.7B vs $114.8B expected, citing significant supply constraints. The stock is down ~4% in after-hours trading. Amazon reported a massive beat with Q2 revenue of $200.6B (up 20% YoY) and EPS of $5.75 vs $1.82 expected, driven by AWS growth of 37% and a $53.4B gain from Anthropic revaluation. Amazon guided 2026 capex of $200B focused on AI, and the stock is up ~8% after hours. These two reports create a MAG7 divergence: Amazon's strong AI cloud narrative supports tech bulls, while Apple's weak guidance and supply chain warnings dampen sentiment. Separately, the US Q2 GDP came in at 1.5% (below 2.1% prior), but consumer spending remained strong at 3.2%. The Fed's preferred inflation measure remained above 2%, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' rate narrative. Geopolitically, a drone attack on two ships at Egypt's Damietta port (confirmed by Egypt) and a separate drone strike on a US-owned LNG vessel near Suez are escalating energy security risks, though oil prices have not yet spiked. The US Treasury's Bessent commented that the yen 'seems very undervalued' and suggested Japan may have intervened in FX markets, which could impact USD/JPY and related equities. The UEFA/FIFA World Cup boycott threat is noise for US markets. Overall, the narrative is one of mixed tech earnings with a bullish tilt from Amazon, countered by Apple's cautious outlook and macro headwinds from sticky inflation and geopolitical tensions.