WS #13103

The dominant narrative remains the global tech rebound, with Microsoft's record $450B single-day market cap gain (+15% to $3.35T) and Amazon's AWS-driven beat (+9.5% after-hours) confirming AI demand. This is corroborated by the Kospi's +16% surge (Samsung +26%, SK Hynix +30%) and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +8%. However, Apple's earnings, while record-breaking ($109.4B revenue, +16%), disappointed on guidance due to a 'hundred-year flood' in memory costs and worsening supply constraints, causing a ~6% after-hours drop—a clear MAG7 divergence from the rally. Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING: fresh US strikes on Iran, a drone attack on gas tankers at Egypt's Damietta port near the Suez Canal (threatening Saudi oil export routes), and Russia extending diesel/gasoline export bans through January 2027. These keep oil elevated (~$89 Brent) and add inflationary pressure, with US mortgage rates hitting a 12-month high of 6.66%. A suspected Japanese yen intervention (Bloomberg: 'Japan preempts market with yen intervention') and the BOJ decision add macro uncertainty. The Hamas disarmament deal announced by Trump remains unconfirmed by Hamas or Israel, so it's a potential geopolitical positive but not yet a market mover. US Q2 GDP slowed to 1.5% (miss) with stubborn inflation, reinforcing stagflation concerns.