WS #13127

The dominant theme is the sharp bifurcation in mega-cap tech earnings: Amazon (AMZN) surged ~13% on record Q2 results with AWS growth accelerating to 37% (revenue $42.2B) and capex guidance raised to $220B, while Apple (AAPL) plunged ~9% after Q3 revenue/services/China sales and Q4 guidance all missed, citing AI-driven supply constraints and memory costs. Microsoft (MSFT) continues its historic rally (+17% on the week, +$450B market cap) after Azure grew 43%, reinforcing the AI-monetization trade. This is a clear MAG7 carve-out: AMZN and MSFT are bullish AI-cloud winners, AAPL is a bearish outlier on supply/margin concerns, and Meta (META) is recovering modestly after its AI-spend selloff. Macro backdrop remains hawkish: US 10-year yield hit 4.7388% (highest since Jan 2025), University of Michigan sentiment rose to 55.2 (above estimates), and ECI came in hot at 0.9% vs 0.8% expected, supporting the Fed-hawkish narrative. Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING: Iran struck tankers under US escort in the Strait of Hormuz, crude pushed past $90/bbl, and the strait is nearly closed; this is a second-order oil shock with energy bullish (XOM, CVX, VLO) and consumer/airline bearish. The BOJ reportedly intervened to defend the yen, a counter-signal to yen weakness. Poland summoned Russia's ambassador after an alleged missile incursion, adding NATO-Russia tension. Novo Nordisk (NVO) plunged ~$21B in market cap after its heart drug Ziltivekimab failed a Phase 3 trial, a high-significance single-name event. Other notable movers: Coinbase (COIN) fell on weak Q2, Guardant Health (GH) hit 52-week high on guidance hike, and Eaton (ETN) gapped up on strong earnings.