WS #13134

The dominant theme remains the AI/semiconductor rebound, now firmly established as the market narrative. Microsoft's blowout earnings (Azure +43%, stock +15.5%) and Amazon's surge (+13-14%, AWS +36.7%, $220B capex with 'line of sight' to returns) have validated AI capex, triggering a record KOSPI rally (+17.91%) and lifting global tech. This directly counters the prior AI-selloff narrative. The 'Leopold Low' thesis (Situational Awareness fund collapse, Citadel buying portfolio) is being cited as a potential bottom for AI stocks, with multiple sources corroborating the fund's forced deleveraging and its removal as a source of selling pressure. However, Apple (AAPL) remains a notable laggard, down 9%+ on supply-chain constraints (memory chip shortage) and services miss, with Tim Cook confirming AI compute costs will be passed to consumers via iCloud+ subscriptions—a new monetization signal. The US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING: IRGC claims it struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, Trump says war 'going well', and oil prices remain elevated (Brent ~$88.6, WTI ~$85.9), though a Saudi-led 43-country maritime defense coalition and Chevron's CPC pipeline flowing act as counter-signals. Eurozone CPI rose to 2.9% (energy +10%), reinforcing hawkish ECB expectations (DWS sees September hike to 2.50%). Fed internal dissent is notable: three FOMC members (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) dissented against holding rates, signaling hawkish pressure. Reddit (RDDT) plunges on record on Google AI search threat, while Coinbase (COIN) falls 13.9% on Q2 miss.