WS #13137

The dominant theme is a sharp divergence within Big Tech: Apple (AAPL) is plunging ~9.5% after weak September-quarter guidance tied to memory-chip supply constraints and rising costs, while Amazon (AMZN) surges ~9-15% on strong Q2 results and AWS acceleration, with UBS raising its target to $318. Microsoft (MSFT) also benefits from solid results and a UBS target hike to $525. This creates a MAG7 carve-out: the AI/semiconductor rebound narrative is intact for AMZN/MSFT but AAPL is a standalone negative. Meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING: oil prices are rising (WTI ~$85, Brent ~$90) as Iran's Revolutionary Guard strikes two tankers at the Strait of Hormuz and halts transit, with Trump threatening increased pressure while also signaling possible talks. The US Treasury has reportedly informed banks it may intervene in the yen market, a potential counter-signal to yen weakness. NXP Semiconductors is in talks to acquire Ambarella (AMBA) for ~$3.3B, a notable M&A signal in the chip space. Fed officials dissented on holding rates steady due to inflation worries, and the Treasury is weighing a repo entry that could reshape funding markets. FIFA's World Cup monetization plan faces mounting opposition, but this is low market impact. The S&P 500 is heading for its first July decline since 2014, with chip stocks having their worst month in 24 years, though a semiconductor rebound is underway in Asia.