WS #13139

The dominant theme is a sharp divergence in mega-cap tech earnings: Amazon (AMZN) surged ~13-15% after reporting Q2 revenue of $200.6B (+20% YoY), operating income up 43% to $27.5B, AWS growth accelerating to 37% (fastest in 18 quarters), and raising 2026 capex guidance to $220B. This validates the AI infrastructure spending supercycle and counters the recent AI stock rout. In contrast, Apple (AAPL) plunged ~10% (worst post-earnings drop since 2013) after issuing weaker-than-expected guidance, citing supply constraints and memory costs, with shares hovering near the $300 support level. This divergence is corroborated across multiple sources (CNBC, Seeking Alpha, GDELT, Reuters) and is driving index-level moves: S&P 500 and Nasdaq are mixed, with AMZN and MSFT strength offsetting AAPL weakness. Separately, the US-Iran conflict is escalating: Iran attacked US bases in Jordan and tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US withdrew Patriot systems from Erbil, while Trump threatened heavier strikes. This is pushing oil prices higher (Brent forecast raised to $85.22 for 2026) and causing bond yields to rise (10Y at 4.74%, highest of the year) as Fed hawks (Hammack, Kashkari) push for rate hikes. The Fed's Barkin called it a 'close call' on whether rates are high enough, adding to rate uncertainty. In M&A, NXP (NXPI) is in talks to acquire Ambarella (AMBA) for ~$3.3B, sending AMBA up 19% and NXPI down 3.8%. Crypto is weak (BTC below $63k) amid CLARITY Act uncertainty and rising real yields. Overall, the market is navigating a tug-of-war between strong AI earnings and macro/geopolitical headwinds.