WS #13145

The dominant market narrative is a sharp divergence within Big Tech: Amazon (AMZN) is surging ~15% on a blowout quarter with AWS revenue up 37% (fastest in 4 years) and a raised capex guide to $220B, while Apple (AAPL) is plunging ~10% on a 'hundred-year flood' memory/component shortage that will constrain iPhone/Mac/iPad shipments and a services growth slowdown. This is a MAG7 carve-out situation: the AI capex trade is bifurcating between hyperscalers with visible monetization (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL) and hardware-dependent names (AAPL) facing supply pain. Nvidia (NVDA) has reclaimed the world's most valuable company crown from Apple, reinforcing the AI-infrastructure leadership theme. Meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict is ESCALATING: Iran struck two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and launched drones at US bases in Kuwait and Iraq, pushing Brent above $90 and WTI near $85, with July Brent on track for a ~23% monthly gain. This is a clear oil-supply shock with second-order effects across energy, airlines, and shipping. Counter-signals exist: a two-week ceasefire framework for Hamas disarmament is being reported, and the Pentagon is seeking $18.2B to replenish missile stockpiles, which could dampen some geopolitical risk premium. The Fed remains hawkish (Logan favored a hike), and the US Treasury has warned of potential FX intervention after Japan's action, adding to macro uncertainty. Overall, the tape is risk-on led by Amazon and AI infrastructure, but Apple's supply warning and oil spike are key risks to watch.