WS #13155

The market narrative remains dominated by the post-earnings divergence in Big Tech: Amazon's record surge (best day in 14 years, +15.3%, ~$390B market cap added) and Microsoft's strong week contrast sharply with Apple's supply-constrained guidance (-8.3% on the day, ~$350B+ market cap loss) and Meta's AI-spend-driven decline. This divergence is corroborated across multiple sources (Reuters, GDELT, Seeking Alpha, Bluesky heatmaps) and is the primary driver of index moves, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing higher on the week despite a volatile month. The AI trade is bifurcating: hyperscaler capex is being validated by AWS/cloud growth, while memory and semiconductor names (Micron -5.9%, Qualcomm on weak guidance) and AI hardware (Eaton's resilience vs. Vertiv's miss) show mixed signals. Geopolitical risk is escalating: Iran claimed attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, with Hormuz crossings down 77% day-on-day, and Brent crude rose ~1.5% to ~$88-90, while the US-Iran war shows no de-escalation (Senate rejected war powers limits, Iran strikes on US bases in Kuwait). This is pressuring bonds (10-year yield at 4.745%, highest since early 2025; 30-year at 19-year high) and fueling inflation concerns, with Fed officials signaling potential rate hikes (65% odds of September hike). Counter-signals include the Hamas disarmament deal (Trump claims Israel 'understanding') and a possible US-Iran ceasefire market, but these are tentative. Trucking/logistics stocks are in their worst month since tariffs on legal risk, and crypto is weak (Bitcoin below $63k, Coldcard hack losses).