WS #13160

The dominant theme remains the ESCALATING US-Iran conflict, with multiple sources (WSJ, CBS News, and various social media) reporting that President Trump has ordered a fresh attack on Iran aimed at forcing surrender, potentially beginning this weekend and lasting a few days. This is a direct escalation from the previous 'preparing to strike' status, now confirmed as an ordered attack. The attack targets energy-related infrastructure, which threatens oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have already surged, with Brent settling near $90 and WTI at $84.67, posting their biggest monthly gains since March (Brent +24%, WTI +21% in July). Hedge funds have added bullish oil bets at the fastest pace since March, and Exxon, Chevron, and Shell all reported strong earnings, with Shell beating estimates by $0.29 EPS. This escalation is bullish for energy (XOM, CVX, XLE) and bearish for airlines (DAL, UAL, AAL) and other oil-sensitive sectors. However, there is a counter-signal: Strait of Hormuz traffic has increased, with 28 ships crossing on Thursday, the most in two weeks, suggesting some easing of the blockade, which could dampen the oil spike. Additionally, the Fed narrative is evolving: Fed Chair Warsh is considering reducing the frequency of policy meetings (reported by Bloomberg and Seeking Alpha), which is a hawkish signal that could pressure growth stocks and support financials. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.73%, the highest since January 2025, and the 30-year yield reached levels not seen since 2007, reflecting sticky inflation and oil-driven pressures. In Big Tech earnings, Amazon surged +15.32% after a strong AWS beat (37% growth), while Apple fell -7.35% on guidance concerns, creating a stark divergence. This divergence is a key signal: the market is rewarding AI/cloud spending (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL) but punishing hardware/consumer weakness (AAPL). The MAG7 narrative is mixed, with NVDA up +2.9% and TSLA +0.8%, but the overall tech rally is fragile. Additionally, a new development: Trump signed a proclamation imposing a tariff-rate quota on quartz surf