WS #13182

The dominant theme remains the escalating US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING. Multiple sources (GDELT, jetstream.bsky, GlobalSecurity) confirm Iran's IRGC continues to attack oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority stating Hormuz remains closed. This is corroborated by reports of US strikes on Iran, Iranian attacks on a US base in Kuwait, and a drone attack on an American LNG platform in Egypt's Damietta port, threatening the Suez Canal. Oil prices remain elevated (Brent ~$90, WTI ~$84.67), and the conflict is now directly impacting shipping and energy infrastructure. A counter-signal: the US Treasury is reportedly planning to buy $5-10 billion of Japanese yen, a coordinated intervention to support the yen, which could dampen the weak-yen trade but does not offset the oil shock. The AI trade shows sharp divergence: Amazon surged 15% on strong earnings (AWS up 37%), while Apple crashed 10% (worst since March 2020) after Tim Cook warned of a '100-year flood' in memory prices, with GF Securities downgrading Apple to Hold on expected iPhone 18 Pro price hikes of $200-300. Microsoft delivered a record quarter (Azure up 43%), but Moody's has placed Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet on watchlist for potential downgrades due to exploding AI capex. Reddit shares fell 21% on a US DAU decline. Bitcoin fell to ~$63K, with the Coldcard incident loss estimate raised to $70M. Overall, the dominant theme is the escalating Middle East conflict driving oil and inflation, with secondary AI and crypto divergences.