WS #13184

The dominant narrative remains the escalating US-Iran conflict, now with concrete new data points: Iran has struck US bases in Kuwait and oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US is reportedly preparing a major strike on Iranian energy infrastructure. This is ESCALATING. A key counter-signal emerged: Turkey and Iraq extended an oil pipeline deal that bypasses Hormuz, providing an alternative supply route and partially offsetting oil supply fears. Separately, the AI trade is sharply bifurcating: Apple plunged ~7% on weak guidance due to memory chip shortages (losing ~$400B market cap, ceding 'most valuable company' to NVIDIA), while Amazon surged ~15% on strong AWS growth and Microsoft added $450B in market cap on Azure strength. This divergence is a major signal for tech investors. Additionally, the US Treasury reportedly intervened to support the yen (first time since 2011), a significant FX development. The Fed's Warsh is reportedly considering reducing meeting frequency, adding to policy uncertainty. Russia launched a massive missile/drone attack on Kyiv, with Ukraine running out of Patriot interceptors, and Ukrainian drones struck Russia's Ufa oil refinery, tightening oil supply.