WS #13186

From 498 msgs · 4 key-dev

The dominant theme is a sharp reversal in the AI trade: after a brutal selloff, hyperscaler earnings (Microsoft, Amazon) and memory-chip dynamics (Samsung warning of a crunch into 2028) triggered a massive rebound in chip stocks, with SK Hynix and Samsung posting record gains and the Kospi surging ~17-18%. This is corroborated by multiple sources (CNBC, Nikkei, FT, CoinDesk). The Fed's July 29 FOMC decision (hold at 3.5-3.75%, with 3 dissents favoring a hike) and hawkish comments from dissenting officials (Hammack, Kashkari) signal persistent inflation concerns, while June CPI/PPI came in cooler than expected, creating a mixed macro picture. The US-Iran conflict is escalating again: Iran attacked US assets in Kuwait/Bahrain, Egypt saw a drone strike on ships, and Trump threatened to hit Iran 'very hard,' pushing WTI to ~$84.77 and the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.73%. This escalation is a counter-signal to the earlier ceasefire narrative, and it is driving oil prices higher, which could pressure equities and inflation expectations. In crypto, a major Coldcard wallet vulnerability led to a ~$38-70M BTC drain, but Bitcoin remained flat near $63-64K, with options positioning turning bearish for August (top trade is a $60K put).

Topics

Key developments

  • Hyperscaler earnings and memory crunch trigger record chip rally
  • Fed holds rates but 3 dissents favor hike; core PCE at 3.4%
  • US-Iran conflict escalates: attacks on US bases, Egypt, and Trump's 'very hard' threat
  • Coldcard wallet vulnerability drains ~$38-70M in Bitcoin