WS #13201

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING. Iran's IRGC claimed attacks on two US-escorted oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and a drone strike on a US base in Kuwait, while a Greek-managed LNG carrier (GasLog Shanghai) was hit by a projectile in the strait, causing a fire and blackout. The US State Department urged Americans to leave the Middle East, and the US European Command warned of insufficient warships to protect Israel. These developments are bullish for oil and energy stocks (XOM, CVX, OXY) and bearish for airlines (DAL, UAL) and shipping (MATX, ZIM). However, a counter-signal emerged: Turkiye and Iraq signed a one-year oil pipeline deal (Kirkuk-Ceyhan) to keep 750,000 bpd flowing, which partially offsets supply disruption fears. Separately, Apple's stock plunged ~10% after its earnings guidance missed due to component shortages (memory and processors), with market cap loss of ~$500B, making Nvidia the most valuable company again. This is a MAG7 carve-out: Apple's weakness contrasts with the broader tech rally driven by strong Amazon and Microsoft cloud results. The AI infrastructure theme remains strong, with Super Micro Computer announcing $60B in orders and Chevron signing a 20-year power deal with Microsoft for AI data centers. The US Treasury reportedly made a historic move to stabilize the yen, which could impact currency markets and multinationals.