WS #13215

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING. The US has threatened more strikes on Iran, and there are reports of new attacks, including a strike on a Greek-owned LNG carrier in the Strait of Hormuz causing a blackout, and drone attacks on Kuwait. This is corroborated by multiple sources (AP, GDELT, Fortune). The conflict is expanding beyond the Strait, with Egypt's Mediterranean coast hit for the first time, threatening the Suez Canal route. This is a significant escalation that could impact European gas prices and shipping rates. In response to the Hormuz closures, Iraq and Turkey have signed a one-year oil pipeline deal to export 750,000 barrels per day via Ceyhan, a counter-signal that partially offsets the oil supply disruption. Additionally, Exxon and Chevron warn that refining capacity is the bottleneck, with nearly 10% of global refining offline, keeping fuel prices high even if crude falls. This is bullish for refiners (MPC, PSX, VLO) and bearish for airlines and consumers. In corporate news, Westinghouse has confidentially filed for an IPO, which could be a significant event for the nuclear energy sector. Also, S&P 500 earnings growth hit 47.4%, the best since 2021, led by tech, which is a positive signal for the broader market. However, Tesla is falling due to AI spending concerns, and SpaceX's stock has tumbled 46% from its high, dragging Musk's fortune down. These are mixed signals for the tech sector.