WS #13221
The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING. Fresh reports confirm Iran struck two tankers under US escort in the Strait of Hormuz, with crude pushing past $90/barrel. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Guardian, Bluesky, OilPrice) and has direct energy market implications: bullish for energy (XOM, CVX) and LNG shippers, bearish for airlines (DAL, UAL) and consumer discretionary. However, a counter-signal is emerging: China's crude imports fell 32% in Q2 due to high prices, softening the upward price pressure. Additionally, the Fed's hawkish stance (57% probability of September hike) is pressuring growth stocks, while the AI trade is splitting sharply: Microsoft (MSFT) jumped 15% on Azure acceleration, Amazon (AMZN) surged on AWS growth, but Meta (META) sank 8% on weak guidance and Apple (AAPL) tumbled on supply constraints. The collapse of the Situational Awareness hedge fund ($45B to $10B) adds to AI volatility. Memory shortage (RAMaggedon) is pushing up costs for Apple and others. The BOJ intervened to defend the yen near 160, and the Bank of England held rates at 3.75% with a 6-3 vote.
Topics
Key developments
- Iran strikes tankers under US escort in Strait of Hormuz; oil above $90
- Microsoft jumps 15% on Azure acceleration, Meta sinks 8% on weak guidance
- Amazon surges on AWS growth, raises capex to $220B
- Apple tumbles on supply constraints and weak guidance
- Fed holds rates but 3 dissenters; market prices 57% chance of September hike
- Memory shortage to worsen through 2027, raising costs for Apple and others
- AI hedge fund Situational Awareness collapses from $45B to $10B